Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 18 2023 19:43:26

ACUS01 KWNS 181943
SWODY1
SPC AC 181941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states through
tonight.

....20Z Update...
The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no
additions were made with this update.

...Weinman/Smith.. 10/18/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023/

....Synopsis...
A midlevel shortwave trough over eastern SD will continue
east-southeastward toward northern IL by early Thursday.  Very
isolated lightning flashes have occurred this morning with midlevel
convection over MN in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel
trough.  However, moisture/buoyancy will remain too marginal to
support the addition of a thunderstorm area.  Farther south, a
modifying air mass will return northward from the western Gulf of
Mexico toward southern AR by Thursday morning.  Buoyancy will remain
weak and ascent will be relatively weak/shallow, so thunderstorm
development appears unlikely prior to 12z.

$$

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