Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 18 2023 17:32:29

ACUS02 KWNS 181732
SWODY2
SPC AC 181730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf Coast, coastal North Carolina,
and parts of southern Florida.

....Synopsis...
A highly amplified midlevel trough will move gradually eastward from
the MS Valley into the OH/TN Valleys through the period. A surface
low will develop eastward over the Upper Great Lakes vicinity, while
an attendant cold front sweeps eastward from the MS Valley into the
OH/TN Valleys and central Gulf Coast. Along/ahead of the front,
diurnal heating amid a narrow corridor of weakly modified Gulf
moisture (lower/middle 50s to near 60 F dewpoints) will yield weak
surface-based instability given cool temperatures aloft. As a
result, isolated eastward-spreading thunderstorms are possible over
the OH/TN Valleys and central Gulf Coast -- primarily during the
afternoon into the overnight hours. While 25-30 kt of effective
shear could promote briefly strong updrafts, the limited
moisture/instability should temper overall severe-storm potential.

Farther east, large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel trough will
overspread the Eastern Seaboard during the overnight hours. In
response, a surface low will move northward off the NC coast,
supporting isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms over coastal
NC during the overnight hours. Ample deep-layer shear could support
a couple loosely organized storms, though most of this activity
should remain offshore where low-level moisture and instability will
be greater. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible over the FL
Keys and southern FL late in the period, aided by a weak low-level
disturbance lifting northward over the FL Straits amid middle/upper
60s to lower 70s F dewpoints.

...Weinman/Smith.. 10/18/2023

$$

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