Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 18 2023 11:22:45

ACUS01 KWNS 181122
SWODY1
SPC AC 181121

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0621 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the Lower 48 states through
tonight.

....Discussion...
A quiescent pattern for thunderstorm activity is expected today. An
initially vigorous shortwave trough over the Dakotas will weaken
slightly as it moves towards IL tonight. This will yield modest
filling of the attendant surface cyclone as it tracks from the Upper
Red River Valley to the WI/Upper MI border area. Multiple bands of
elevated, low-topped showers will persist within a well-defined
comma shape ahead and near the shortwave trough. Slivers of elevated
buoyancy from parcels rooted at or above 700 mb might support a few
sporadic lightning flashes either within the warm conveyor region or
immediately ahead of the mid-level vorticity max through tonight.
While a few rumbles of thunder are possible over the Upper Midwest
into IL/IN, overall probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent.

...Grams/Jewell.. 10/18/2023

$$

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