Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 18 2023 08:51:30

ACUS48 KWNS 180851
SWOD48
SPC AC 180849

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Stable conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CONUS
in the wake of frontal passage on D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. Another
shortwave trough is expected to move across northern/central CA and
into the western Great Basin on D5/Sunday, evolving into an upper
low as it continues to drop south-southeastward towards the Lower CO
Valley on D6/Monday.

Upper flow downstream of this low will trend more southwesterly,
helping to induce lee surface troughing and lower surface pressure
across the Plains. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the
southern Plains as a result, contributing to moderate moisture
advection. A cold front may move southward/southeastward across the
Plains on D6/Monday and D7/Tuesday, interacting with this return
moisture over the central Plains. However, inconsistency within the
guidance regarding the existence and timing of this front limits
predictability.

Most guidance suggests the upper low over the Southwest eventually
ejects out through the southern Plains during the latter part of
next week. A reservoir of favorable low-level moisture would likely
be in place over the southern Plains, contributing to the potential
for severe thunderstorms. However, guidance varies significantly on
the timing and strength of this low as it ejects out, limiting
forecast confidence.

...Mosier.. 10/18/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.