Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 18 2023 07:30:47 ACUS03 KWNS 180730 SWODY3 SPC AC 180729 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Southeast into southern New England, as well as over south Florida, on Friday. ....Synopsis... Upper pattern is forecast to be characterized by an amplified western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern early Friday morning. A strong shortwave trough is expected to traverse this troughing, moving from the Lower OH Valley southeastward through the TN Valley and off the Southeast coast by late Friday evening/early Saturday morning. Farther west, a shortwave trough is expected to progress across CA and into the western periphery of the upper ridge. Evolution of these waves should lead to an overall deamplification of the upper pattern. At the surface, primary low is expected to be over northeastern Ontario early Friday morning. A cold front will extend from this low southward into the Upper OH Valley and then back more southwestward through AL. This front is forecast to make steady eastward progress throughout the day while secondary cyclogenesis occurs off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Modest low-level moisture will precede this front across GA and the Mid-Atlantic states, with mid 50s dewpoints likely reaching into SC. Some boundary-layer mixing of this moisture is possible, but modest buoyancy is still expected to develop as this mixing is compensated by cooling mid-level temperatures. Veering low-level flow will limit convergence along the front, but strong large-scale forcing for ascent will spread across the region ahead of the approaching shortwave. This combination of buoyancy and ascent should lead to thunderstorm development, with the potential for a relatively narrow convective line to develop. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this shortwave as well, contributing to fast storm motion and the possibility of a few damaging gusts, particularly across the Carolinas. However, given the limited buoyancy and potential for relatively shallow storms, will not introduce any severe probabilities. An area maybe needed in later outlooks greater/deeper buoyancy is predicted. ...Mosier.. 10/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .