Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 18 2023 05:03:45

ACUS01 KWNS 180503
SWODY1
SPC AC 180501

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the Lower 48 states on
Wednesday.

....Discussion...
A mid- and upper-level short-wave trough initially centered over the
northern Plains will dig southeastward with time, across the
Missouri and Mid/Upper Mississippi Valleys through the period.  The
advance of this trough will help to reinforce the existing longwave
eastern U.S. trough.  Meanwhile, upstream from this trough, ridging
will prevail over the western states.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will shift southeastward
across the Upper Midwest and Plains states, in tandem with the
digging upper system.

Despite the fairly vigorous upper system, a lack of appreciable
instability east of the Rockies, in the wake of the prior frontal
intrusion, suggests that appreciable lightning activity is unlikely
through the period.

...Goss/Thornton.. 10/18/2023

$$

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