Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Oct 18 2023 05:32:16 ACUS02 KWNS 180532 SWODY2 SPC AC 180530 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2023 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the central Gulf Coast, and across south Florida, on Thursday. ....Synopsis and Discussion... An amplified upper trough is expected to cover much of the central and eastern CONUS early Thursday, with the trough axis extending the length of the MS Valley. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to traverse through this parent upper troughing, with the lead wave moving across the Upper Great Lakes and the second wave moving from the Mid MO Valley through the Mid-South and TN Valley. This evolution will result in a gradual eastward motion of the primary upper trough, with this trough axis expected to extend from the Upper Great Lakes into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by early Friday morning. Surface low associated with the lead shortwave trough is expected to move gradually eastward across the Upper Great Lakes, while an attendant cold front moves eastward from the MS Valley through the OH and TN Valleys, and most of the Southeast. Modest moisture advection will precede this front, with upper 50s dewpoints potentially reaching the Mid-South vicinity. Low 50s dewpoints are likely into the Lower/Middle OH Valley. This modest low-level moisture will contribute to limited buoyancy and the potential for thunderstorms along and ahead of the front. Highest thunderstorm potential is over the TN Valley where, the best overlap between the low-level moisture and cooler mid-level temperatures will help support greater buoyancy. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, and the potential exists for an organized storm or two. However, the strongest shear will lag behind the cold front and buoyancy will remain modest, limiting the overall severe potential. Elsewhere, a few isolated storms are also possible along the GA/Carolina coast Thursday evening into Friday morning as low-level moisture advects inland ahead of the approaching upper trough. Highest thunderstorm chances are currently expected to remain offshore. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible over south FL, where ample low-level moisture, and associated buoyancy, will be in place amid low-level convergence. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low. ...Mosier.. 10/18/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .