Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 18 2023 00:59:45

ACUS01 KWNS 180059
SWODY1
SPC AC 180057

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0757 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Valid 180100Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Discussion...
The onset of nocturnal cooling this evening has led to progressive
stabilization of the airmass, across both the northern Plains
vicinity, and across Arizona/New Mexico -- areas where ongoing or
recent thunderstorm activity is observed.

Lightning has diminished substantially across the northern Plains
area, with no new flashes indicated and CAPE rapidly diminishing.
As such, the 10% thunder area is being removed across this region.

Across southeastern Arizona/southwestern New Mexico, stabilization
is ongoing, though weak instability still remains locally.  While
lightning activity is rapidly diminishing -- and this trend to
continue -- will maintain a small thunder area to cover lightning
potential over the next 1 to 2 hours.

...Goss.. 10/18/2023

$$

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