Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 17 2023 19:48:40

ACUS01 KWNS 171948
SWODY1
SPC AC 171947

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....20z Update...

No changes are needed with the 20z update. Isolated thunderstorms
remain possible across parts of southeast AZ/southwest NM, and
across the northern Plains. See previous discussion below for
further details.

...Leitman.. 10/17/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023/

....Discussion...
In the Southwest, a cluster of ongoing thunderstorms along the
International border vicinity of southeast Arizona will probably
continue through the afternoon and potentially expand northward
toward the Rim/White Mountains and otherwise into southwest New
Mexico. Deep layer shear and overall buoyancy will remain weak, but
a few stronger gusts could occur given boundary-layer mixing depth.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough currently northwest Montana/southern
Alberta will prominently amplify, moving southeastward and reaching
the Dakotas tonight. Increasing forcing for ascent and an increase
in mid-level moisture with minimal buoyancy may be sufficient for a
few thunderstorms across parts of North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota late this afternoon into tonight. Marginally supportive
thermodynamic profiles with low-topped convection could yield some
lightning as far southwest as southeast Montana, where convectively
enhanced wind gusts could occur regardless of lightning
characteristics.

$$

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