Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 17 2023 16:22:10

ACUS01 KWNS 171622
SWODY1
SPC AC 171620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Valid 171630Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Discussion...
In the Southwest, a cluster of ongoing thunderstorms along the
International border vicinity of southeast Arizona will probably
continue through the afternoon and potentially expand northward
toward the Rim/White Mountains and otherwise into southwest New
Mexico. Deep layer shear and overall buoyancy will remain weak, but
a few stronger gusts could occur given boundary-layer mixing depth.

Meanwhile, a shortwave trough currently northwest Montana/southern
Alberta will prominently amplify, moving southeastward and reaching
the Dakotas tonight. Increasing forcing for ascent and an increase
in mid-level moisture with minimal buoyancy may be sufficient for a
few thunderstorms across parts of North Dakota into northwest
Minnesota late this afternoon into tonight. Marginally supportive
thermodynamic profiles with low-topped convection could yield some
lightning as far southwest as southeast Montana, where convectively
enhanced wind gusts could occur regardless of lightning
characteristics.

...Guyer/Lyons.. 10/17/2023

$$

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