Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 17 2023 15:59:21

FOUS30 KWBC 171559
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1158 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023 - 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023


The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Snell



Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023 - 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 19 2023 - 12Z Fri Oct 20 2023

Despite a marginally better convective scheme for Thursday evening
across the Tennessee Valley and portions of the Southeast U.S, the
probability of exceeding guidance within the 1,3, or 6 hr time
frames for flash flood exceedance intervals is very low with even
the 75th percentile of PQPF for the NBM blend still falling
well-short of the expected FFG guidance within the above area.
Modest theta-E advection regime and deep layer ascent from a
digging shortwave on the backside of the mean trough is still
falling short of what would be necessary to "improve" any flash
flood threat, but it will be a period to monitor for trends once
we get into the range of CAMs and hi-res ensemble probabilistic
forecasts.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7fPMzvhYKrFCXQhS3g4GR3o5MdXxmNzNUwCldqUwSGq0=
PUXEgt9z9bDJxEYi9uvphN0lGPZ3_gDmjFUM3uMWr86wuFA$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7fPMzvhYKrFCXQhS3g4GR3o5MdXxmNzNUwCldqUwSGq0=
PUXEgt9z9bDJxEYi9uvphN0lGPZ3_gDmjFUM3uMWi0rTkrs$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7fPMzvhYKrFCXQhS3g4GR3o5MdXxmNzNUwCldqUwSGq0=
PUXEgt9z9bDJxEYi9uvphN0lGPZ3_gDmjFUM3uMWmfEcZK8$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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