Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 17 2023 11:21:07

ACUS01 KWNS 171121
SWODY1
SPC AC 171119

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0619 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

....Discussion...
Thunderstorm potential will be limited to two confined areas within
the CONUS. The northern extent of a Gulf of CA/Pacific coastal
Mexico lobe of higher PW values should support isolated
thunderstorms peaking in the late afternoon across southeast AZ to
perhaps as far north as the Mogollon Rim. Weak deep-layer shear and
surface temperature-dew point spreads in excess of 40 degrees may
foster pulse microbursts capable of locally gusts from 40-55 mph.

A shortwave trough over the southern Canadian Rockies will amplify
as it digs east-southeast into the northern Great Plains.
Strengthening ascent and moistening near 700 mb should yield scant
elevated buoyancy from late afternoon into this evening across
central ND to the Upper Red River Valley. Very isolated
thunderstorms may form within a developing band of elevated showers.
Separately, low-topped showers should also form within a
post-frontal regime centered on southeast MT and adjacent border
areas during the late afternoon to early evening. Shower downdrafts
will further enhance already strengthening gradient winds and likely
result in strong gusts over parts of the northern High Plains.
Models largely suggest only a sliver of buoyancy at most is
anticipated, but aggressive ones infer a low-probability threat of a
thunderstorm or two.

...Grams/Jewell.. 10/17/2023

$$

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