Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 17 2023 07:45:42

ACUS48 KWNS 170745
SWOD48
SPC AC 170744

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

....DISCUSSION...
A deep upper trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Great Lakes
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico D4/Friday morning. Cold front
associated with this trough will extend across a similar area, with
both the upper trough and cold front expected to push eastward
throughout the day. Modest low-level moisture will likely be in
place ahead of this cold front across portions of the Southeast,
potentially supporting enough buoyancy for thunderstorms. Vertical
shear should be strong enough for some severe potential, although
uncertain regarding the quality of the low-level moisture and
frontal timing currently limit predictability.

Stable conditions are expected across the CONUS in the wake of this
front during weekend, but guidance is in good agreement that another
shortwave trough should develop into the Plains early next weekend.
While variability exists within the guidance regarding the strength
and speed of this wave, there is currently good consensus for
moisture return ahead of this wave. As such, some severe potential
appears possible, although large-scale predictability issue preclude
much forecast confidence at this range.

...Mosier.. 10/17/2023

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.