Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 17 2023 07:07:33

FOUS30 KWBC 170707
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 17 2023 - 12Z Wed Oct 18 2023

A vigorous shortwave trough will exit southwestern Canada into the
northern plains later this afternoon/evening continuing through
the end of the D1 period. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
within the northern periphery of an eventual closed upper-level
reflection across North Dakota leading to totals possibly
exceeding 1" in a 3-6 hr span over northern and eastern ND. Lack
of sufficient buoyancy will negate the potential for heavier
rainfall that would induce a flash flood concern, even for the
flood plain along the ND/MN border. ARI exceedance probabilities
continue to be near or at 0% within the area of expected rainfall,
thus will maintain the void in any excessive rainfall risk areas.

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer



Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4JcXA2MdGwnWojK_JX17rqoIHdbbMt0pvwcEbIqzD04d=
93JZDYEZJjL9J2jN6qSNGgdn6c_qQT4JUKnD-BSbas2RLsc$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4JcXA2MdGwnWojK_JX17rqoIHdbbMt0pvwcEbIqzD04d=
93JZDYEZJjL9J2jN6qSNGgdn6c_qQT4JUKnD-BSbL7ZoNgo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4JcXA2MdGwnWojK_JX17rqoIHdbbMt0pvwcEbIqzD04d=
93JZDYEZJjL9J2jN6qSNGgdn6c_qQT4JUKnD-BSbrIpSmuI$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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