Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 17 2023 04:50:07

ACUS01 KWNS 170450
SWODY1
SPC AC 170448

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...

As an upper shortwave trough develops southeast from western Canada
into the northern Plains, an upper ridge centered over the High
Plains will shift east to the Midwest by early Wednesday. A surface
trough a cold front attendant to the upper shortwave trough will
sweep east across the northern Plains. A lack of boundary-layer
moisture will negate instability across the region, precluding
thunderstorm potential.

Isolated thunderstorm may develop diurnally across parts of
southeast AZ into far southwest NM amid modest midlevel moisture and
weak instability. The lack of stronger instability combined with
weak shear and nebulous large-scale ascent will limit severe
potential, though some gusty winds are possible given steep
low-level lapse rates and inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles.

...Leitman/Thornton.. 10/17/2023

$$

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