Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 16 2023 19:54:35

ACUS01 KWNS 161954
SWODY1
SPC AC 161952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning strikes are possible over parts of Washington
state and perhaps southeatern Arizona. However, severe thunderstorms
are not expected today and tonight.

....20Z Update...
The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no
changes were made with this update.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 10/16/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023/

A deep, mid-level, long-wave trough centered over the Atlantic Coast
is forecast to slowly weaken as it consolidates into a broader
mid-level low and moves offshore late in the forecast period. In the
wake of the large eastern US trough, northerly offshore flow and
cool temperatures will dominate the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm chances. To the west, transient mid-level
ridging over the Southwest will be suppressed and shift eastward
under the influence of an advancing shortwave trough along the
border of southern BC. Weak inland advection of a modified eastern
Pacific air mass across western and northern WA State may briefly
support destabilization sufficient for a few thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the early evening. However, scant buoyancy (less than
500 J/kg of MUCAPE) confined within the lowest few km, will limit
the potential for strong, organized and persistent updrafts capable
of more widespread lightning. A few lightning strikes are also
possible over portions of southeastern AZ where strong surface
heating and marginal moisture may support a brief thunderstorm.
However, coverage appears unlikely to reach 10% and no thunder area
will be included. With limited to negligible thunderstorm chances
for much of the country, severe storms are unlikely over the CONUS
today and tonight.

$$

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