Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 16 2023 17:31:05

ACUS02 KWNS 161730
SWODY2
SPC AC 161729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...
An expansive continental polar surface high will shift eastward from
the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians, favoring
cool/dry boundary-layer conditions and limited thunderstorm
potential across much of the central/eastern CONUS. Farther west, a
shortwave trough will cross the northern Rockies/adjacent Plains,
while a related cold front sweeps east/southeastward across the
northern/central Plains. However, thunderstorms are not expected
given limited moisture/instability ahead of the front.

Over parts of southeastern AZ, diurnal heating/steepening low-level
lapse rates beneath a plume of adequate midlevel moisture will yield
a weakly unstable air mass. While large-scale forcing for ascent
will be minimal, isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms are
possible during the afternoon/early evening given the adequate
instability and gradually eroding inhibition. Inverted-V
thermodynamic profiles could support locally strong gusts, though
the weak instability and lack of vertical shear should limit updraft
intensity.

...Weinman/Thompson.. 10/16/2023

$$

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