Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 16 2023 16:29:34

ACUS01 KWNS 161629
SWODY1
SPC AC 161628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated lightning strikes are possible over parts of Washington
state and perhaps southeatern Arizona. However, severe thunderstorms
are not expected today and tonight.

A deep, mid-level, long-wave trough centered over the Atlantic Coast
is forecast to slowly weaken as it consolidates into a broader
mid-level low and moves offshore late in the forecast period. In the
wake of the large eastern US trough, northerly offshore flow and
cool temperatures will dominate the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS,
limiting thunderstorm chances. To the west, transient mid-level
ridging over the Southwest will be suppressed and shift eastward
under the influence of an advancing shortwave trough along the
border of southern BC. Weak inland advection of a modified eastern
Pacific air mass across western and northern WA State may briefly
support destabilization sufficient for a few thunderstorms late this
afternoon into the early evening. However, scant buoyancy (less than
500 J/kg of MUCAPE) confined within the lowest few km, will limit
the potential for strong, organized and persistent updrafts capable
of more widespread lightning. A few lightning strikes are also
possible over portions of southeastern AZ where strong surface
heating and marginal moisture may support a brief thunderstorm.
However, coverage appears unlikely to reach 10% and no thunder area
will be included. With limited to negligible thunderstorm chances
for much of the country, severe storms are unlikely over the CONUS
today and tonight.

...Lyons/Thompson.. 10/16/2023

$$

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