Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 16 2023 08:25:32

ACUS48 KWNS 160825
SWOD48
SPC AC 160823

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0323 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2023

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Deterministic and ensemble guidance is in good agreement with the
general pattern through about Sunday/D7, depicting a large trough
amplification over the eastern CONUS. Low pressure will develop over
the Great Lakes with a cold front extending south on Thursday/D4 and
Friday/D5, but instability is forecast to be quite limited due to
antecedent high pressure along the East Coast. A couple hundred J/kg
MUCAPE may develop over parts of the Southeast during this period,
but the severe weather threat appears low. More likely, concentrated
areas of storms will develop over the Atlantic as low pressure
deepens rapidly and moves toward New England and the Maritimes.

Behind this system, relatively stable conditions should prevail over
the central states, but models do hint at additional trough
amplifications developing across the West toward the end of the
period. Even so, moisture return across the Plains looks to be
limited through Monday/D8.

...Jewell.. 10/16/2023

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