Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 15 2023 19:48:26

ACUS01 KWNS 151948
SWODY1
SPC AC 151946

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
The general thunderstorm area for far south FL and the FL Keys has
been dropped. While shallow convection will be possible near the
cold front as it moves southward into this evening, weak ascent and
instability are expected to limit the potential for deeper
convection capable of producing lightning.

...Dean.. 10/15/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1101 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023/

....Synopsis...
An initial wind shift and association convection has shifted south
of the FL Keys and into the FL Straits.  Farther northwest, the
synoptic cold front (denoted by a narrow cloud line) will continue
to move southeastward across south FL and the Keys this afternoon
into this evening.  Lingering low-level moisture and shallow ascent
along the front could support isolated thunderstorm development
later this afternoon/evening, but storm coverage will be rather
sparse.  Otherwise, a midlevel shortwave trough will approach the
Pacific Northwest early Monday, but any threat for isolated
lightning flashes will occur after 12z.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.