Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 15 2023 08:46:22

ACUS48 KWNS 150846
SWOD48
SPC AC 150844

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a
shortwave trough over the northern Plains D4/Wednesday morning will
progress eastward/southeastward and evolve into a deep trough
covering the eastern CONUS by D6/Friday. Moisture return ahead of
this wave and its associated cold front will be modest until
D6/Friday when some interaction between the cold front and moderate
low-level moisture is possible across the Southeast states. Frontal
timing remains uncertain, as do the pre-frontal thermodynamic
conditions. These factors limit the predictability of severe
thunderstorms at this forecast range.

Strong surface cyclogenesis appears probable just off the East Coast
on D7/Saturday and D8/Sunday as another shortwave trough pivots
through the large upper trough expected to be in place over the
eastern CONUS. With cyclogenesis occurring offshore, no severe
thunderstorms are anticipated.

...Mosier.. 10/15/2023

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