Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Oct 15 2023 07:16:53

ACUS03 KWNS 150716
SWODY3
SPC AC 150716

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0216 AM CDT Sun Oct 15 2023

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

....NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.

....Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to extend southwestward from an upper
low just off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast into the central Gulf
of Mexico early Tuesday morning. Upper ridging is forecast from the
Southwest into the northern Plains. This overall pattern is expected
to gradually shift eastward in response to the eastward progression
of a shortwave trough from the northern Rockies through the northern
Plains.

Surface pattern early in the period will feature expansive ridging
from southern/central Plains eastward across the eastern CONUS. This
ridging will persist from the MS Valley eastward, while the
approaching shortwave trough and associated cold front lower surface
pressure across the Plains. Southerly flow will increase across the
Plains as a result. However, any more substantial low-level moisture
will remain offshore, precluding thunderstorm development across the
majority of the region. The only exception is across the Upper MS
Valley Tuesday evening. Here, cold mid-level temperatures may
overlap warm-air advection across the warm sector to support an
elevated thunderstorm or two. However, overall coverage is currently
expected to remain below 10 percent.

...Mosier.. 10/15/2023

$$

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