Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2253 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 14 2023 20:29:51 ACUS11 KWNS 142029 SWOMCD SPC MCD 142029=20 NCZ000-142230- Mesoscale Discussion 2253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Areas affected...Parts of eastern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20 Valid 142029Z - 142230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for a brief tornado and locally damaging gusts may develop late this afternoon into the early evening. DISCUSSION...Despite some cloud breaks/heating across eastern NC this afternoon, convection has struggled to intensify thus far, likely due to weak midlevel lapse rates and the presence of a rather dry midlevel environment (as noted on WV imagery and forecast soundings). However, some deepening of convection remains possible late this afternoon into this evening, as a surface cyclone currently over eastern NC strengthens before moving offshore. The most favorable wind profiles will be coincident with the pre-frontal warm-advection regime that is currently overspreading far eastern NC and the Outer Banks region. 0-1 km SRH of greater than 200 m2/s2 will conditionally support a brief tornado threat with any sustained deep convection within this regime. However, very limited buoyancy may continue to limit updraft intensity until this regime shifts offshore.=20 Farther west, showers are gradually increasing along a cold front moving into eastern NC. Low-level winds have veered somewhat immediately ahead of the front, though some localized backed flow remains evident near the surface low. It remains unclear as to whether deep convection will develop near the surface low/front, but rather strong low/midlevel flow will conditionally support gusty/damaging winds with any vigorous convection in this region, and possibly a brief tornado where low-level winds remain locally backed. At this time, any severe threat is expected to remain limited in both coverage and magnitude. ...Dean/Thompson.. 10/14/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9Pl7wwAgbEzg8mMYun15iIxb4AxtbpZ1bbCT3KZkSA5wHbQM-Qao2YshX1u5fJlr-Ro5c0_nQ= -tv6nOUKgxiiNiwvJ4$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 34997773 35747736 36317680 36327632 36257563 35737548 35217544 35017597 34627639 34557715 34387756 34357769 34677784 34997773=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .