Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Oct 14 2023 09:00:17

ACUS48 KWNS 140900
SWOD48
SPC AC 140858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a shortwave trough
will move quickly from the northern Rockies into the
northern/central Plains on D4/Tuesday. This system is expected to
continue eastward on D5/Wednesday and D6/Thursday while slowing its
forward progression and amplifying significantly. By D7/Friday
morning, most of the recent guidance places a deep upper trough over
the eastern CONUS and a strong ridge of the western CONUS.

A cold front will accompany this trough, but low-level moisture
advection ahead of it will be modest and confined to the Lower MS
Valley and Southeast/FL. Some thunderstorms are possible in these
areas along and ahead of the front on D6/Thursday and D7/Friday.
However, uncertainty regarding frontal timing and the quality of the
low-level moisture return limits predictability of severe
thunderstorms at this forecast range.

...Mosier.. 10/14/2023

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