Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Oct 14 2023 05:44:17 ACUS01 KWNS 140544 SWODY1 SPC AC 140542 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 14 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ....SUMMARY... A couple of severe storms may develop across parts of eastern North Carolina this afternoon. ....Synopsis... A mid-level short-wave trough crossing the Midwest/Ohio Valley at the start of the period will progress quickly eastward through background westerly flow residing across the central and southern states today. A lead cyclonic disturbance will shift across North Carolina during the day, supporting surface cyclogenesis. As the evolving low shifts northeastward across the coastal Carolinas through the day, a moist/weakly unstable warm sector will support showers and thunderstorms -- most numerous over eastern North Carolina through the afternoon. ....Eastern North Carolina... Ongoing convection across portions of the Carolinas at the start of the period is forecast to gradually overspread the MRGL risk area through the morning, which, along with associated cloud cover, will limit appreciable diurnal heating. This, along with weak low-level lapse rates, suggests that afternoon mixed-layer CAPE values should remain largely at or below 1000 J/kg across the North Carolina Coastal Plain and Outer Banks region. Still, a few stronger storms are expected to evolve as the onshore surface low gradually deepens through the day. Near the low, backed low-level flow beneath a belt of enhanced (40 to 50 kt) mid-level westerlies will result in 0 to 6km shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms. While modest instability should limit potential for hail, a couple of strong/locally damaging gusts will be possible. Additionally, the degree of low-level veering of the wind field with height also suggests potential for a brief tornado, before storms -- and the associated surface low -- move offshore by early evening. ...Goss/Thornton.. 10/14/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .