Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 13 2023 19:40:14 ACUS01 KWNS 131940 SWODY1 SPC AC 131938 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA... ....SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible through early evening from central Iowa to west central Illinois and northeast Missouri. ....20z Update... The Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has been trimmed on the periphery of the area. This is to account for current location of the surface low over western IA and the cold front extending into northeast MO, with limited destabilization occurring with southward extent along the boundary. Additional minor trimming of the Marginal risk has occurred across north-central IL where precipitation has lingered for much of the day and little destabilization is expected into early evening. Overall severe threat will mostly be confined to the Slight (level 2 of 5) risk over central IA and within Tornado Watch 710 over the next few hours, where locally strong gusts, isolated hail, and a tornado or two will be possible. ...Leitman.. 10/13/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023/ ....IA and vicinity through early evening... A vertically stacked low will move eastward over IA this afternoon/evening. A narrow, weakly unstable warm sector will develop immediately in advance of the surface front and occluded cyclone from northwest into central/southeast IA from early into mid afternoon, where surface heating occurs in cloud breaks and boundary-layer dewpoints hold near 58-61 F. A band of convection is expected to form along the front by 18-20z, where low-level ascent coincides with the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet. Deep-layer vertical shear will be somewhat modest, while vertical vorticity and low-level lapse rates/CAPE will align with the boundary, suggesting a mix of low-topped supercells and/or multicells capable of producing a few tornadoes, marginally severe hail and isolated strong gusts this afternoon into early this evening before buoyancy diminishes. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .