Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Oct 13 2023 17:10:11 ACUS02 KWNS 131710 SWODY2 SPC AC 131708 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1208 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts of the coastal Carolinas. ....Mid-Atlantic... An upper trough will spread east from the Midwest toward the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. This will bring a belt of 50-60 kt west/southwesterly 500 mb flow over the central/southern Appalachians to the Eastern Seaboard. In the midlevels, more south/southwesterly flow is expected, with around 30-40 kt 850-700 mb flow progged across the Carolinas toward the southern Chesapeake Bay vicinity. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to move north/northeast along the SC/NC coastal plains, while a broader synoptic low develops east along the WV/PA/MD border vicinity. A cold front will shift east across the central/southern Appalachians while a warm front extends east from the PA/MD surface low into southern NJ. Deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain across the coastal Carolinas toward the Delmarva vicinity where upper 60s/low 70s dewpoints are forecast. Warm advection will likely result in some cloudiness and showers, with only modest boundary-layer heating occurring ahead of the eastward advancing cold front and surface low. This will limit stronger destabilization, though a narrow corridor of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE is possible across eastern NC. Relatively strong deep-layer flow and vertically veering wind profiles will result in effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt, with enlarged, curved low-level hodographs. While weak instability and relatively warm temperatures aloft will limit updraft intensity/depth, a few strong storms capable of locally damaging gusts or a tornado or two will be possible. Further north near the WV/PA/MD low, boundary-layer moisture will be limited and meager instability is expected. However, strong vertical wind profiles suggest a couple of storms with gusty winds or small hail are possible, though severe potential remains low. ...Leitman.. 10/13/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .