Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 13 2023 16:31:42

ACUS01 KWNS 131631
SWODY1
SPC AC 131630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL IA...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms will be possible this afternoon from central
Iowa to west central Illinois and northeast Missouri.

....IA and vicinity through early evening...
A vertically stacked low will move eastward over IA this
afternoon/evening.  A narrow, weakly unstable warm sector will
develop immediately in advance of the surface front and occluded
cyclone from northwest into central/southeast IA from early into mid
afternoon, where surface heating occurs in cloud breaks and
boundary-layer dewpoints hold near 58-61 F.  A band of convection is
expected to form along the front by 18-20z, where low-level ascent
coincides with the left-exit region of the mid-upper jet.
Deep-layer vertical shear will be somewhat modest, while vertical
vorticity and low-level lapse rates/CAPE will align with the
boundary, suggesting a mix of low-topped supercells and/or
multicells capable of producing a few tornadoes, marginally severe
hail and isolated strong gusts this afternoon into early this
evening before buoyancy diminishes.

...Thompson/Lyons.. 10/13/2023

$$

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