Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 13 2023 07:29:38

FOUS30 KWBC 130729
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
328 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023 - 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST...

....Mid-Upper Mississippi Valley to the western Great Lakes...
The large scale synoptic system across the eastern Plains will
track across the Midwest later today and into the Ohio Valley on
Saturday. As the mid-upper low gradually opens, the degree of
south-southeast low-level inflow will decrease with time today and
tonight, as will the 850 and 850-700 mb moisture flux anomalies
per the 00Z SREF and GEFS. Furthermore, MUCAPEs ~1000 J/Kg across
eastern NE as of 0600Z 10/13 are expected to drop below 1000 J/Kg
over IA later today, then average around or below 500 J/Kg across
northern-central IL Friday evening and overnight. Compared to
yesterday's Day 2 ERO, the Slight Risk was constricted a bit,
while also shifted southward into the area where the most
favorable coupling of forcing and instability is expected
along/near the surface low track.

Peak probabilities of >1"/hr rainfall rates per the 00Z HREF are
between 40-80% across western portions of the Slight Risk area
(i.e. Iowa) between 2100-0100Z, while probabilities of QPF
exceeding 3" during the Day 1 period are 40-50% across the same
area. Meanwhile farther east into northern IL, the latest HREF
probabilities of >3" during Day 1 top between 30-40%.

Hurley


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7hAKpEEqrbp0lJ6am6V9jSxcBJr4nkQx2OG-TbSWvfmw=
PSnn605yA5oD-8xTGwN5uaV2cvncC8ExwQEKHAyQN297t6M$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7hAKpEEqrbp0lJ6am6V9jSxcBJr4nkQx2OG-TbSWvfmw=
PSnn605yA5oD-8xTGwN5uaV2cvncC8ExwQEKHAyQsqAUrLU$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!7hAKpEEqrbp0lJ6am6V9jSxcBJr4nkQx2OG-TbSWvfmw=
PSnn605yA5oD-8xTGwN5uaV2cvncC8ExwQEKHAyQfw8qzqE$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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