Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 13 2023 05:34:10

ACUS02 KWNS 130534
SWODY2
SPC AC 130532

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts
of the coastal Carolinas.

....Synopsis and Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the OH Valley
and central Appalachians on Saturday, continuing eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast early Sunday morning. Another shortwave trough is
forecast to move from the central Plains towards the Mid-South in
the wake of the lead wave, contributing to a broad area of cyclonic
flow over much of the central and eastern CONUS by early Sunday
morning.

At the surface, primary low will track close to the lead shortwave
trough, with secondary cyclogenesis anticipated along the Carolina
coast throughout the day. Limited buoyancy, fostered mainly by cold
mid-level temperatures, is anticipated ahead of the primary low as
it moves across the OH Valley and central Appalachians. This limited
buoyancy should keep the overall severe risk low, but enhanced
low/mid-level flow may contribute to damaging gust or two with any
more sustained/robust updrafts, particularly across WV.

Most guidance suggests the secondary low will track far enough
inland to bring low 70s dewpoints into immediate coastal portions of
the Carolinas. Deepening surface low will support moderate low-level
southeasterly flow across the warm sector. This southeasterly flow
beneath moderate westerly mid-level flow will support robust shear
and the potential for more organized thunderstorms. Despite low 70s
dewpoints, overall buoyancy will be modest, tempered by warm
mid-level temperatures and limited heating. This should limit
overall updraft depth and duration, and is expected to keep the
severe risk isolated. Even so, damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado
are possible with any warm-sector thunderstorms that can mature.

...Mosier.. 10/13/2023

$$

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