Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Oct 13 2023 00:49:37

ACUS01 KWNS 130049
SWODY1
SPC AC 130048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS INTO WESTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
A few severe storms remain possible this evening mainly over parts
of eastern Nebraska.

....Central Plains...
An upper low will continue to move slowly east across NE through
tonight, with a 70-80 kt midlevel jet pushing east into IA and
northern MO. At the surface, low pressure will fill as it moves east
across the same areas. Storms have generally decreased in intensity
this evening due to the cooling air mass, except for farther south
into east-central KS in closer proximity to the surface warm plume.
00Z soundings downstream indicate minimal instability overall, with
little additional destabilization expected as a cooling boundary
layer counteracts any cooling aloft. Shear will remain strong over
northern areas, but waning instability should limit the overall
severe risk. As such, a Marginal Risk will remain over the area for
sporadic hail in the stronger cells.

...Jewell.. 10/13/2023

$$

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