Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2249
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 22:12:06

ACUS11 KWNS 122212
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122211=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-130015-

Mesoscale Discussion 2249
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Areas affected...central Nebraska south to central Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 709...

Valid 122211Z - 130015Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 709 continues.

SUMMARY...Local severe risk -- including potential for a brief
tornado or two -- continues, but should gradually decrease with time
early this evening.

DISCUSSION...Strong storms are ongoing at this time in the vicinity
of a surface low centered over south-central Nebraska.  The
convection has progressed to the eastern/northeastern fringe of the
instability axis, and with the onset of nocturnal stabilization,
instability should diminish further.=20=20

While low-level and deep-layer shear remain otherwise quite
favorable for severe storms, the thermodynamic limitations suggest
that severe risk should gradually wane over the next few hours.  At
this time, with WW 709 scheduled for a 13/00Z expiration, additional
WW issuance appears unlikely downstream of the existing convection.

...Goss.. 10/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4HdXZzUFpzfcCFGXfBECN6Vvfo_mnlsj9-WiBBJmAYZq0kyrwqSu9qLF1q7gtSKJfGbIt6_zC=
6d7IH7C9AkiMAlM7D0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...

LAT...LON   39239857 40269888 40759939 42509935 42339815 41379695
            39599642 38799679 38779772 39239857=20


=3D =3D =3D
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