Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2248
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 20:45:07

ACUS11 KWNS 122045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122044=20
KSZ000-NEZ000-122145-

Mesoscale Discussion 2248
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Areas affected...south-central NE...far northern KS

Concerning...Tornado Watch 709...

Valid 122044Z - 122145Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 709 continues.

SUMMARY...The risk for severe will likely continue to be confined
and increasingly pinched in spatial extent as storm activity
progresses from west to east across south-central NE.  An additional
weather watch will probably be considered east of Tornado Watch
#709.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar/visible-satellite imagery loops show
storms peaking in intensity as they move to be within proximity of
the triple point currently located over south-central NE.  The
airmass is quite cool at the surface north over central portions of
NE and the convective mode as already become linear, thereby greatly
limiting the risk for large hail.  The dryline has surged east
across north-central KS and the warm/unstable sector has become
effectively pinched to be near the KS/NE border near Hastings, NE.=20
It seems the tornado risk may have peaked already, but a threat for
a brief tornado may continue in the short-term near the triple
point.  The lack of surface-based storm development on the dryline
lends uncertainty regarding the coverage of potential stronger storm
activity over the next couple of hours as storms slowly move east of
tornado watch #709.  Convective trends will be monitored for a
possible additional weather watch over portions of eastern NE and
northeast KS.

...Smith.. 10/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!7t1CTMh8mXlHFvlNgkOskta_14JUAKpGbr5gmgs9LfnyHwjvJKPk8JZQjInCYIBHD07CYZ6zP=
n3zy-9OiBsSAD6zGZ4$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40779909 40809902 40929872 40889790 40529728 40029714
            39729725 39499773 39519802 40019827 40269856 40459900
            40779909=20


=3D =3D =3D
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