Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 19:44:36 ACUS01 KWNS 121944 SWODY1 SPC AC 121942 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Large hail, damaging winds gusts, and a few tornadoes are possible through this evening over parts of the central Plains including Nebraska and northern Kansas. Sporadic strong wind gusts may still occur this afternoon across portions of northern/central Florida, but the overall tornado risk has lessened. ....Central Plains... No changes have been made to this portion of the outlook with the 20z update. See previous discussion below for more details, and reference Tornado Watch 709 and any forthcoming MCDs for short term severe info. ....Florida... While moderate instability will remain over the central Peninsula through early evening, low-level shear will continue to gradually decrease while low-level flow becomes increasingly veered as a cold front sags southward. This should limit tornado potential the remainder of the period. However, sporadic strong gusts may continue with any stronger cells the next several hours before severe potential diminishes further this evening. ...Leitman.. 10/12/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023/ ....Florida... Scattered thunderstorms persist this afternoon as far north as the warm front vicinity across northern Florida, with additional warm-sector storms, some of which that have exhibited low-level rotation through late morning, persisting across the central Peninsula. As sampled by regional WSR-88D VWP data, residually strong low-level winds/SRH and a very moist airmass will continue to support a tornado risk potentially for a few more hours this afternoon, with locally damaging winds a possibility as well. The overall tornado risk will slowly diminish through the afternoon into evening as low-level winds within the lowest 2-3 km AGL gradually weaken and continue to veer more westerly. ....Central Plains including Nebraska/Kansas... Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected this afternoon into early evening especially across southwest/south-central Nebraska and nearby northern Kansas. Large hail, severe winds gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible. A surface low will continue to deepen and shift east-northeastward across west-central portions of Nebraska/Kansas this afternoon in tandem with an eastward-moving cold front. Cloud cover including low-level stratus has remained prevalent into midday across Nebraska/northern Kansas, with thunderstorms already regenerating across western Nebraska/northwest Kansas. This may somewhat temper overall destabilization, but surface dewpoints around 60F and cool temperatures aloft will support severe-adequate destabilization even if minimal cloud breaks occur. An arcing band of intensifying low-topped convection should develop/increase by mid-afternoon, initially near the surface low/triple point across west-central/southwest Nebraska, and potentially southward along the front into northern Kansas. This will include some initial supercells, even while deep-layer shear will tend to weaken this afternoon in vicinity of the triple point, as severe-favorable thermodynamics and ambient vorticity will be compensatory. Large hail can be expected, and a few tornadoes may also occur, particularly in vicinity of the triple point across west-central/south-central Nebraska and possibly far northern Kansas. Storms are expected to cluster across central into eastern Nebraska this evening, with some severe potential continuing, while additional, at least isolated, strong thunderstorm development may occur southward near the front across Kansas this evening. ....Southern Plains... Deep/sustained convective potential is lesser and more uncertain with southward extent, given weaker overall mass response (as compared to farther north) and warmer mid-level temperatures and poorer mid-level lapse rates. Still, a few storms may develop as far south as the dryline/front vicinity across Oklahoma this evening. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .