Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2247
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 18:13:05

ACUS11 KWNS 121812
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121812=20
FLZ000-121945-

Mesoscale Discussion 2247
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0112 PM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Areas affected...Central Florida

Concerning...Tornado Watch 708...

Valid 121812Z - 121945Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues.

SUMMARY...The tornado threat is expected to continue for the next
hour or so across central Florida, but will slowly diminish heading
into the late afternoon as low-level wind shear wanes. Additional
watch issuance is currently not anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations and RAP mesoanalysis
estimates continue to show a favorable tornado environment across
central FL with MLCAPE values upwards of 1000-1500 J/kg and
effective SRH around 100-200 m2/s2. However, VWP observations from
KTBW and KTPA show a gradual weakening of 1-3 km winds, which has
resulted in a steady reduction of low-level SRH over the past few
hours. This trend is expected to continue through the remainder of
the afternoon as the surface low over the northeast Gulf begins to
weaken. Consequently, the expectation is for a gradually diminishing
severe/tornado threat after the 19/20 UTC period. Additional watch
issuance beyond this time frame is currently not anticipated, and a
temporal extension may be conditional on the development of more
discrete/cellular storms that will have a higher probability of
realizing the conditionally favorable environment (as opposed to the
more linear/clustered storm modes currently being observed).

...Moore.. 10/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-l4BPsFF2HnXgMReRJfo4LdkN_7jvnoOuj6bnu64Sbq4tk3n6qWPVSpNYELNGUtvU7-OTz3_Z=
bz1LlafrbI0GuO6VGU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   27798292 28448276 29088265 29538237 29918114 29568099
            28948070 28628067 28188160 27578220 27408256 27368275
            27798292=20


=3D =3D =3D
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