Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2245
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 15:54:34

ACUS11 KWNS 121554
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 121553=20
FLZ000-121800-

Mesoscale Discussion 2245
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1053 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Areas affected...Tampa Bay vicinity

Concerning...Tornado Watch 708...

Valid 121553Z - 121800Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 708 continues.

SUMMARY...The greatest risk for a brief tornado may focus near the
greater Tampa Bay vicinity through 200pm (1800 UTC).

DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis indicates a very moist/buoyant
airmass is located over the west-central portion of the FL Peninsula
with mid-upper 80s deg F temperatures and near 80 deg dewpoints.=20
This airmass was sampled by the 12 UTC TBW raob and little change
has likely occurred thermodynamically except for slightly warmer
surface temperatures.  As a larger cluster of the convection west of
Tampa Bay moves towards the bay over the next 1-2 hours, expecting
intermittent/transient rotation with the stronger updrafts embedded
within the larger convective cluster.  40-kt southwesterly 1-km AGL
flow will maintain sufficiently enlarged hodographs for at least the
next few hours and potentially favor transient low-level mesocyclone
development capable of an isolated risk for near-shore
waterspouts/tornadoes.  It is unclear whether some of the focused
tornado risk will be maintained as this activity moves farther
inland into the central portions of the peninsula.

...Smith.. 10/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!-L8nIfh0NmLLVyB7WD3opYvjIszdy3juEGcqPsZW9XZqNWgy3sTWaONX8utwK1eZ0lFMw5vIf=
81ZH-cnubyeoxtJIIY$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   27898290 28178260 28288232 28238211 28048214 27698247
            27358257 27308273 27648292 27898290=20


=3D =3D =3D
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