Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 07:31:33

ACUS03 KWNS 120731
SWODY3
SPC AC 120730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible Saturday across parts
of the eastern Carolinas.

....Eastern Carolinas...
An upper trough with strong westerly mid-level flow will move
eastward across the OH/TN Valleys and Carolinas on Saturday. Primary
surface low over the OH Valley Saturday morning should advance
towards the central Appalachians through the day, while a secondary
surface low along/near the SC Coast moves northeastward across
coastal NC by Saturday evening. Rich low-level moisture will attempt
to advect inland ahead of this low across coastal portions of the
Carolinas. There are still some differences in model guidance
regarding both the surface low strength/track, and the inland extent
of low-level moisture. Still, strong deep-layer shear will foster
convective organization with any thunderstorms that can be sustained
over land, with isolated strong to damaging winds possible.
Sufficient low-level shear may also exist to support updraft
rotation and perhaps some threat for a tornado. Given the
uncertainties previously mentioned, have included a Marginal Risk
across parts of eastern NC/SC.

....Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic...
Low-level moisture ahead of the primary surface low and attendant
cold front should remain fairly limited Saturday. Poor lapse rates
are also forecast to hinder instability even as modest diurnal
heating occurs. While enhanced low/mid-level flow associated with
the eastward-moving upper trough should be present over the central
Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, the limited instability is
expected to temper the threat for robust convection capable of
producing damaging winds. Therefore, no severe probabilities have
been included across these areas at this time.

...Gleason.. 10/12/2023

$$

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