Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2242 To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 06:46:34 ACUS11 KWNS 120646 SWOMCD SPC MCD 120645=20 FLZ000-120845- Mesoscale Discussion 2242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Thu Oct 12 2023 Areas affected...North-central Florida Peninsula Concerning...Tornado Watch 707... Valid 120645Z - 120845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 707 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue across parts of the north-central Florida Peninsula tonight, as several potentially tornadic supercells move further inland across north-central Florida. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a large expanse of rainfall from the Florida Panhandle extending eastward across the northern Florida Peninsula. A warm front is located near the southern edge of this large area of rain. Several discrete supercells, potentially tornadic, are ongoing across the western Florida Panhandle to the north of Tampa Bay. These cells will likely remain intact, moving northeastward across the north-central Florida Peninsula over the next few hours. The latest WSR-88D VWPs at Tampa Bay and Melbourne, Florida have strong speed and directional shear in the lowest 1 km resulting in a clockwise turning hodograph. This is resulting in storm-relative helicity near 400 m2/s2, which is ideal for tornadoes. Short-term model forecasts continue to increase low-level shear late tonight, which will result in a continued tornado threat over the next 3 to 4 hours. Although a lull in storms is expected along the immediate west coast of the Florida Peninsula, an increase in cell coverage near the west coast may again take place later this morning. ...Broyles.. 10/12/2023 ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6osFg0ynif1xcEJqYdef4kVTj9OTArYDM_c2GHJl5jIlsJ-c5LM8Y9vIyOab-2FwD-eix8Kh3= hEZ1oqVRFviyVi6kqk$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 29488263 29778235 29848200 29708127 29518111 29168111 28568153 27988228 27898248 27898260 27988275 28368278 28558275 29118271 29488263=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .