Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2240
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 02:41:01

ACUS11 KWNS 120240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120240=20
FLZ000-120415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2240
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0940 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Areas affected...Portions of the western Florida Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 120240Z - 120415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Portions of the western Florida Peninsula are being
monitored for increasing severe-storm potential during the next
couple of hours. The primary concern is the potential for a tornado
or two in the near term.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts an east/west-oriented
warm front extending from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico into
portions of central FL. Weak warm-air advection amid deep/rich
tropospheric moisture (2.3 inch PW sampled by 00Z TBW sounding) and
minimal inhibition are supporting isolated low-topped convection
along the FL west coast. While poor deep-layer lapse rates and the
weak forcing for ascent have limited updraft intensity/longevity
thus far, a couple updrafts have shown signs of organization along
the immediate coastal areas during the last 30 minutes. This is
being aided by gradually expanding, clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs (250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per TBW VWP). During the next
couple of hours, isolated low-topped supercells will pose a threat
of a tornado or two -- especially along/south of the warm front
where antecedent heating amid upper 70s dewpoints is yielding
moderate surface-based instability. With time, convection should
further increase in intensity and coverage across portions of west
FL and the FL Big Bend, as a surface low and strong low-level jet
approach from the west.

...Weinman/Guyer.. 10/12/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!84JoAYL_9OjKG_7w3L1szupkmxMQOs4f_BHIhLeH2bZ6RVE04tFKTI6t5QtLdsj8ZMBworTEy=
gW-mHhaiIzTyqBFJlc$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TBW...

LAT...LON   27598208 26868190 26698203 26638228 26948252 27408279
            27928291 28778289 28958266 28958242 28798211 28508203
            27598208=20


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.