Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Oct 12 2023 00:46:00

ACUS01 KWNS 120045
SWODY1
SPC AC 120044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND WESTERN FLORIDA TOWARD THE COASTAL BEND...

....SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes are possible this
evening and tonight over the western Florida Peninsula/coastal-bend
region. Strong to severe thunderstorms over the central Plains and
Midwest may be capable of marginal hail through late tonight.

....Much of the western FL Peninsula to the coastal FL Panhandle...
A front currently extends across north-central FL, with cool and
relatively stable air to the north. The 00Z JAX sounding shows poor
lapse rates and no instability within this air mass. The TLH
exhibits similar characteristics, north of the boundary. South of
these areas, and where winds have a southerly component, upper 70s F
dewpoints are contributing to modest instability, ahead of the
developing areas of storms over the Gulf of Mexico. Shear profiles
are strengthening across the entire area in anticipation of the
approaching convectively enhanced low, and a few supercells perhaps
with tornado risk will conditionally be possible with any storms
that move ashore.  This appears most likely late tonight from the
Coastal Bend southeastward toward the Tampa Bay area as stronger
instability develops with time.

....From NE into northern IL...
The 00Z LBF sounding shows nearly 1000 J/kg MLCAPE present, with
steep lapse rates aloft. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms
currently extend from the western Panhandle into northeast CO.

As the surface low deepens and low-level theta-e advection persists
with backed boundary-layer winds, conditions should remain favorable
for scattered storms to develop, with some likely producing hail.
Large-scale ascent will remain favorable, with increasing storm
coverage likely later this evening. Effective shear appears to
further favor cellular storm modes which will be favorable for hail.
Isolated strong gusts may also occur in proximity to the warm
surface air near the warm front.

...Jewell.. 10/12/2023

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.