Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2238
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 11 2023 20:46:29

ACUS11 KWNS 112046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112046=20
FLZ000-112245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2238
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Areas affected...central portion of the FL Peninsula

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 112046Z - 112245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered, weakly rotating deep convection will
probably persist for the next 1-2 hours before the onset of slight
nocturnal cooling.  As large-scale ascent increases this evening, a
subsequent reintensification of storm activity is expected.  A
tornado risk may develop with this evening storm activity.  It is
uncertain regarding the timing for a possible tornado watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar/satellite imagery shows a destabilized boundary
layer featuring deep-moist convection over central portions of the
FL Peninsula.  This convection has developed south of a stationary
front/baroclinic zone draped west to east across the north-central
part of the peninsula.  Surface observations show temperatures
generally in the upper 70s with dewpoints in the 68-70 deg F range
north of the boundary, whereas south of the boundary temperatures
range through the 80s and dewpoints are in the mid 70s.=20=20

Late afternoon 88D VAD data shows a veering and gradually
strengthening wind profile in the lowest 8 km.  Flow is modest in
the lowest 4-6 km currently, but is expected to slowly intensify
through the evening and lead to a gradual enlargement of the
hodograph.  Given the expected arrival of stronger large-scale
forcing for ascent later this evening into the overnight, the
forecast for greater supercell coverage/intensity is anticipated to
coincide with this process.  In the meantime, brief rotation may
occur for the next 1-2 hours with the focus perhaps concentrating
near the temperature gradient/front.

...Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2023

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!50WPuYgJvqiU5JNYcl0bQC4f2zgzH-UgstvqodYswFCPDcz4TZBCoI38Nh0zkOYaX_Mo8e99l=
gv36jaOBhV23kdoA9k$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...

LAT...LON   26478194 26678235 27818293 28678276 29148166 29098109
            28708054 27108010 26478194=20


=3D =3D =3D
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