Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 11 2023 08:04:28

ACUS48 KWNS 110804
SWOD48
SPC AC 110802

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0302 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low over the Midwest/Great Lakes should continue
moving eastward across the OH Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and East Coast
on Day 4/Saturday, with a surface low and attendant cold front also
advancing eastward across these areas. Medium-range guidance remains
in reasonably good agreement with this scenario, although there are
some differences regarding the possible development of a coastal
surface low off the NC/SC Coast through Saturday evening. Low-level
moisture emanating from the Gulf of Mexico will attempt to advance
northward ahead of the cold front over parts of the southeastern
Atlantic states and up to around the MD/DE/PA/NJ border vicinity. If
even weak surface-based instability can develop across these areas,
then some threat for damaging winds may exist Saturday afternoon
with any convection that form along or ahead of the cold front,
given the strength of the low/mid-level flow forecast. But,
confidence in this scenario occurring remains too low to add a 15%
severe area for Saturday. From Day 5/Sunday through the middle of
next week, severe potential across the CONUS appears negligible, as
surface high pressure and generally offshore flow dominates much of
the central/eastern states.

...Gleason.. 10/11/2023

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