Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Oct 11 2023 07:31:30

ACUS03 KWNS 110731
SWODY3
SPC AC 110730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST...

....SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing mainly isolated damaging winds
may occur Friday across parts of the mid Mississippi Valley and
Midwest.

....Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest...
A pronounced upper trough/low over the northern/central Plains
Friday morning should move eastward across the upper/mid MS Valley
and Midwest through the period. A related surface low is forecast to
develop from IA to the northern IL vicinity by Friday evening, with
a trailing cold front expected to sweep eastward across the mid MS
Valley. Enhanced low/mid-level flow will likely accompany this upper
trough. Low-level moisture return ahead of the cold front should
remain rather shallow/limited. Combined with poor mid-level lapse
rates and only modest daytime heating, this will tend to temper the
development of much surface-based instability through the day. But,
even weak instability could support convection capable of producing
isolated strong to damaging winds given the strength of the
low/mid-level flow forecast. Have therefore included a Marginal Risk
across parts of the mid MS Valley and Midwest where linear
convection along/ahead of the front appears possible, mainly Friday
afternoon.

...Gleason.. 10/11/2023

$$

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