Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 10 2023 19:40:26 ACUS01 KWNS 101940 SWODY1 SPC AC 101938 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ....20z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook with the 20z update, and severe storms are not expected through tonight. ...Leitman.. 10/10/2023 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023/ ....Synopsis... Thunderstorm potential today/tonight will be primarily influenced by the deepening of an upper wave (noted off the Pacific Northwest coast in morning satellite imagery) as it moves into the inter-mountain West over the next 24 hours. ....Pacific Northwest to the Southern High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, cooling temperatures aloft combined with strong dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the attendant upper jet will support widespread rainfall with embedded convection through tomorrow morning. Along the OR/WA coasts, latest satellite imagery depicts cooler/drier air aloft moving onshore, which should bolster low to mid-level buoyancy through the day. While some low-level shear is noted in coastal forecast soundings, hodograph structure through tonight is forecast to remain somewhat poor with 0-1 km SRH values sub-100 m2/s2. Combined with a transient convective signal in latest CAM guidance, the coastal tornado potential remains too limited to introduce probabilities. Steep mid-level lapse rates and residual mid-level moisture sampled by 12 UTC soundings from the northern Great Basin into the Southwest may support very isolated thunderstorms through the afternoon from southern WY to northern NM amid continued mid-level height falls. However, the broad-scale nature of the ascent combined with very low PWAT values suggests any convection should be fairly isolated and short lived. Additionally, a lack of a convective signal in any 12 UTC guidance limits confidence in thunder occurrence and coverage outside of southwest CO where a relatively stronger convective signal is noted in HREF thunder probabilities. Thunderstorm potential is higher across the southern High Plains where weak moisture return is coincident with steady surface pressure falls. ....Kansas/Missouri... A weak band of isentropic ascent in the 850-700 mb layer should continue to support occasional lighting flashes across central/eastern KS this afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet will bolster thunderstorm coverage and intensity across northern MO later tonight. Deep-layer shear values may approach 25-30 knots and could foster some storm organization. Small hail is possible with stronger cells across northwest MO, but storm interactions/clustering should limit the overall severe threat. ....South Texas/South Florida... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the southern FL Panhandle within a stalled, frontolytic cold front, but limited buoyancy and weak forcing for ascent should preclude a severe threat. Likewise, marginal buoyancy profiles across south TX should support lightning as a tropical low deepens over the western Gulf of Mexico later tonight, but the severe potential remains low. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .