Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 10 2023 17:11:25 ACUS02 KWNS 101711 SWODY2 SPC AC 101709 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ....SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are expected near the Florida Gulf Coast Wednesday night, posing some threat for strong/gusty winds and a few tornadoes. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly hail appear possible Wednesday evening/night across parts of the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley vicinity. ....Florida... A tropical disturbance currently over the western Gulf of Mexico and remnants of Tropical Cyclone Lidia (offshore the west-central coast of Mexico at of Tuesday midday) are forecast to spread east/northeast across the northern Gulf of Mexico and southern portions of the Southeast Wednesday afternoon through the overnight. The surface low associated with this activity will interact with a frontal zone draped across the central Gulf Coast toward the FL/GA border vicinity from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. Widespread showers and thunderstorm activity will likely occur in a strong warm advection regime across parts of southern AL/GA, but severe potential is not expected north of the boundary across these areas. Further south, boundary-layer moisture will gradually increase with northward extent across the FL Peninsula. Deeper moisture will likely remain offshore the FL Panhandle with the frontal zone very near the coast. However, low/mid 70s F dewpoints will impinge on southern portions of the Coastal Bend and into parts of northern/central FL. Isolated strong convection may develop near the frontal zone along the Panhandle and northern FL by late afternoon and continue into the nighttime hours. A few strong gusts and a tornado will be possible with northern convection. Further south, severe convection is expected to increase after 06z. Strong deep-layer shear, with effective shear magnitudes greater than 40 kt are forecast, supporting organized cells/supercells. As the surface low approaches the Coastal Bend by 06z, low-level shear will increase, with forecast soundings showing enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs. Isolated damaging gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible with this activity during the overnight/early morning hours. ....Central Plains/Mid-MO Valley Vicinity... An upper trough will develop southeast from the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin to the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains Wednesday/Wednesday night. A belt of enhanced southwesterly flow will overspread the central Plains toward the Mid-MO/Mid-MS Valley as this occurs. Meanwhile, a surface low will deepen over eastern CO and spread east into western KS overnight. A warm front will be draped across southeast NE and extend east along the MO/IA border into northwest IL. Capping will preclude thunderstorm development across warm sector south of the warm front. However, strong warm advection atop the warm front and increasing large-scale ascent will result in scattered thunderstorm development during by evening across parts of central/eastern NE eastward to northwest IL. Steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg amid favorable shear profiles should support at least an isolated risk for hail with the strongest cells near/north of the warm front Wednesday evening into the overnight hours. ...Leitman.. 10/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .