Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 10 2023 09:01:52

ACUS48 KWNS 100901
SWOD48
SPC AC 100900

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
An upper trough/low initially over the northern/central Plains on
Day 4/Friday morning is forecast to move generally eastward across
the upper/mid MS Valley, OH Valley, and Great Lakes by Day
5/Saturday. A related surface low should also develop eastward
across parts of these areas in the same time frame, with modest
low-level moisture returning northward in a narrow corridor ahead of
a cold front. Both low/mid-level winds associated with the upper
trough should be rather strong across the warm sector. Some threat
for gusty/locally damaging winds may exist Friday for portions of
the Midwest, OH Valley, and Great Lakes. But, instability should
remain rather weak owing to poor lapse rates. This limits confidence
in the magnitude of any severe wind potential, so a 15% severe
delineation has not been introduced.

An isolated strong/gusty wind threat may persist into Saturday
across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast (roughly PA/NJ to
north FL) as the upper trough/low and a surface cold front continue
moving over the eastern CONUS. However, similar to Friday,
confidence is low that sufficient instability will develop to
support more than a marginal/isolated threat for damaging winds.
Have therefore not included a 15% severe area for Saturday along any
part of the East Coast. Severe potential across the CONUS will
quickly become negligible from Day 6/Sunday into early next week as
the cold front clears the East Coast and south FL.

...Gleason.. 10/10/2023

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