Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 10 2023 08:31:38

FOUS30 KWBC 100831
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
431 AM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

Day 1
Valid 12Z Tue Oct 10 2023 - 12Z Wed Oct 11 2023

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH TEXAS...

....South Texas...
Remnant energy and moisture associated with tropical cyclones
Lidia and Max, along with a developing wave over the western Gulf
of Mexico are expected to converge, raising the threat for heavy
rain across portions of the region beginning later today and
continuing into the overnight.  An amplifying trough over the
southwestern U.S. into northwestern Mexico is forecast to direct
moisture and mid level energy associated with Lidia and Max into a
region of increasing ascent afforded in part by right entrance
region upper jet forcing.  Meanwhile southerly flow ahead of a
developing wave over the western Gulf of Mexico will provide
additional moisture, with PWs reaching 2-2.25 inches across the
region later today.  This deep moisture, along with favorable
forcing, will raise the threat for locally heavy rain across the
region.  Expect the greater instability to remain near the
immediate coast or just offshore, limiting rainfall rates inland.=20
These lighter rates may result in beneficial rains for most areas,
however cannot rule out the threat for isolated flooding
especially for urbanized areas and where soils are already
relatively moist from last week's rain.  The updated Slight Risk
area highlights the area where the HREF shows high neighborhood
probabilities for 2 inches or more, with some embedded higher
probabilities for amounts over 3 inches.

Pereira
=20


Day 2

The Day 2 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 3

The Day 3 outlook will be updated by 0830Z.


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5SSnTsKANzGvZzwMOYVhE9QLfI436zPwf4dZiTnMAscp=
PHQ5tBP-Ns3YNM3FcbxPJombKcGFg4vu385DwBEQE0m3k6Y$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5SSnTsKANzGvZzwMOYVhE9QLfI436zPwf4dZiTnMAscp=
PHQ5tBP-Ns3YNM3FcbxPJombKcGFg4vu385DwBEQmmbxEKc$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5SSnTsKANzGvZzwMOYVhE9QLfI436zPwf4dZiTnMAscp=
PHQ5tBP-Ns3YNM3FcbxPJombKcGFg4vu385DwBEQYOpqVWo$=20


$$



=3D =3D =3D
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