Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Oct 10 2023 07:29:51 ACUS03 KWNS 100729 SWODY3 SPC AC 100728 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Thursday across parts of the central Plains. Other strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across portions of Florida. ....Central Plains... An upper trough/low will eject from the central Rockies across the central Plains on Thursday, with a 50-75 kt southwesterly mid-level jet overspreading KS/NE and western MO/IA through Thursday evening. There are still some differences in model guidance regarding the depiction of the surface low across the central Plains, and the quality of low-level moisture return to the east of a dryline extending southward from the low. Even with these continued uncertainties, strong ascent attendant to the upper trough should encourage convective initiation near the surface triple point, and eventually down the length of the dryline to around the KS/OK border, by late Thursday afternoon and early evening. Steep mid-level lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft should aid in the development of at least weak instability amid strong deep-layer shear. Supercells capable of producing large hail appear possible with initial development. Some wind threat may also exist in the narrow instability corridor through Thursday evening as a low-level jet strengthens. Given the limited low-level moisture and potential for a well-mixed boundary layer with diurnal heating, the tornado threat is less clear. But, some chance for a tornado may exist through early Thursday evening as 0-1 km SRH increases in tandem with a strengthening low-level jet. ....Florida... Compared to other guidance, the 00Z NAM remains a notable outlier in its depiction of both surface and mid-level features on Thursday. It appears more probable that a mid-level perturbation will move quickly off the Southeast Atlantic Coast through Thursday morning. Low/mid-level winds across FL should tend to veer to a more unidirectional/west-southwesterly component by early Thursday afternoon. Even so, sufficient low-level and deep-layer shear may persist through Thursday morning across parts of FL to support some updraft organization and an isolated threat for strong/gusty winds and perhaps a brief tornado or two with the more robust convection that occurs along/south of a front. ...Gleason.. 10/10/2023 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.14-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .