Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Oct 10 2023 00:49:50

ACUS01 KWNS 100049
SWODY1
SPC AC 100048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight.

....01z Update...

Onset of nocturnal cooling will soon result in weakening low-level
lapse rates across AZ/NM where isolated thunderstorms are currently
observed. 00z sounding from TUS exhibits a very deep boundary layer
(3km) with surface temperature of 91F. However, the lack of
large-scale support and cooling boundary layer will lead to
weakening convection this evening and the threat of lightning should
only linger the next few hours.

A couple of thunderstorms may also linger across the northern
Rockies region ahead of a pronounced upper trough. 00z sounding from
BOI suggests any boundary layer cooling will lead to negligible
buoyancy so the threat of lightning should only linger for the next
few hours.

...Darrow.. 10/10/2023

$$

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