Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Oct 09 2023 19:54:17

ACUS01 KWNS 091954
SWODY1
SPC AC 091952

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0252 PM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....20Z Update...
No changes needed to the ongoing forecast. See previous outlook
appended below for more forecast details.

...Mosier.. 10/09/2023

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Mon Oct 09 2023/

....Synopsis...
Mid-morning surface observations continue to depict cool and dry
conditions across a majority of the country. The broad northwest
flow regime over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS will limit
thunderstorm potential and maintain quiescent conditions with the
exception of a few regions. Lingering low/mid-level moisture over
the Southwest and steep mid-level lapse rates will foster another
day of orographically-driven thunderstorms. Weak moisture return
into the southern High Plains may support isolated thunderstorms
across parts of CO, NM, and the OK/TX Panhandles late this
afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing may support a few strong
downbursts, but confidence in the potential for severe wind is too
limited for probabilities. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible
this evening/later tonight across the northern Great Basin/northern
Rockies as ascent associated with an approaching upper wave
overspreads the region. Across the southern FL Panhandle, a few
thunderstorms are possible along/south of a stalled frontal
boundary. 30-40 knot mid-level flow may support transient storm
organization with sufficiently deep/mature convection, but as with
previous days, forcing for ascent will likely be too weak/nebulous
to support a substantial severe threat over land.

$$

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